The Grand Chessboard: Trump, Netanyahu, and the Middle East Ceasefire

 

The recent release of the final living Israeli hostages and the fragile ceasefire in Gaza have converged with a high-stakes diplomatic intervention led by the U.S. President Donald Trump. This confluence of events has dramatically reshaped the political landscape for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, pushing his historically right-wing coalition to the brink.

The October 2025 exchange was the most painful and complex phase of the Gaza war agreement, directly tied to the U.S.-led ceasefire initiative.

1. The Deal: Hostages and Reciprocity

The final agreement secured the return of the 20 remaining living Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity, along with the eventual repatriation of the bodies of 28 deceased hostages. In exchange, Israel agreed to release a substantial number of Palestinian prisoners, believed to be around 1,950 individuals in the final phase.

·       The Price: The reciprocity involved the release of approximately 250 high-profile Palestinian security prisoners, including those serving life sentences for deadly attacks, alongside hundreds of non-convicted detainees arrested during the conflict. For the Israeli public, the return of the living hostages brought immense relief and emotional closure, but the release of convicted terrorists was a bitter pill that drew intense opposition from the hard-right.

·       The Bodies: The return of the bodies is a crucial factor for Israeli public opinion, fulfilling a moral obligation to the families, even as it underscores the tragic finality of the fate of those who perished in captivity.

 

 

2. The Fragile Ceasefire and its Political Consequence

The ceasefire agreement, brokered largely by the U.S. and regional partners like Qatar and Egypt, mandates an end to the active conflict and a gradual Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, setting the stage for discussions on a "Day After" governance plan.

·       Fragility: The truce is fundamentally fragile because only the initial phase (the exchange) has clear terms. Subsequent phases—including the full withdrawal of the IDF, the implementation of security guarantees, and the establishment of a new non-Hamas governance structure—are ambiguous and fraught with disagreement.

·       Netanyahu's Bind: The ceasefire has created a severe existential crisis for Netanyahu's coalition. His far-right partners, Religious Zionism (Smotrich) and Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir), view any truce that falls short of total victory and total destruction of Hamas as a "surrender" and a betrayal of the war's goals. They have repeatedly threatened to topple the government if a long-term ceasefire is implemented, putting Netanyahu's political survival in direct opposition to the diplomatic path the U.S. has forced upon him.

The peace initiative was dominated by the dramatic, personalized diplomacy of President Donald Trump, highlighting the shift away from traditional State Department negotiations.

1. Trump's Tour and the Knesset Address

Fresh off the announcement of the ceasefire, President Trump visited Israel and delivered an address to the Knesset (Israeli Parliament).

·       The Message of "Victory": Trump hailed the hostage release and ceasefire as the "historic dawn of a new Middle East" and declared that Israel had achieved "all that it can by force of arms." This served as a powerful declaration that the military phase of the conflict was over—a direct message to Prime Minister Netanyahu's hard-line elements that any resumption of large-scale hostilities would be met with overwhelming U.S. opposition.

·       A Warning to Netanyahu: Trump's speech, while congratulatory of Israel's "victory," contained a clear underlying warning, urging Netanyahu to embrace the peace process rather than resume "kill, kill, kill," underscoring the shift in U.S. pressure.

2. The Sharm El-Sheikh Forum

Immediately following his Israel visit, Trump co-chaired a high-profile Peace Summit in the Egyptian resort town of Sharm El-Sheikh with President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi.

·       Purpose: The forum was convened to rally international backing for the "Day After" plan: securing financial commitments for the reconstruction of Gaza and defining the governance structure that would replace Hamas. The gathering included a vast array of Arab leaders and other world leaders, signalling a unified international front demanding an end to the conflict.

·        The Kushner Factor and Family Diplomacy: The negotiations were heavily influenced by Trump's close circle, most notably his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who acted as a special envoy alongside others. This is a signature of Trump's foreign policy—bypassing traditional career diplomats for trusted family members or business associates. Kushner, who spearheaded the original Abraham Accords, leverages a network of personal trust built with Gulf leaders. This family-centric diplomacy signifies that the peace process is viewed less as a conventional foreign policy challenge and more as a high-stakes, family-run real estate "deal."

3. Netanyahu's Absence and the Intrigue

Netanyahu initially received a last-minute invitation to the Sharm El-Sheikh forum but ultimately decided not to attend, citing the proximity of the event to the Jewish holiday of Simchat Torah (which begins at sundown on Monday) and the Sabbath.

·       The Official Reason: The explanation of religious observance and coalition sensitivity was the public narrative. Traveling on the eve of a major holiday would have risked alienating his Ultra-Orthodox partners (Shas and UTJ) at a time when he desperately needs their loyalty to ward off a collapse.

·       The Political Intrigue: The real intrigue is that Netanyahu's absence was a move to distance himself from the "Day After" commitments being discussed. By not attending, he avoided publicly endorsing a new governance framework for Gaza that would almost certainly feature a reformed Palestinian Authority—a prospect his far-right base fundamentally opposes. His non-attendance was a delicate political manoeuvre designed to maintain coalition cohesion by avoiding an explicit, immediate break with his hard-right partners over the future of Gaza.

The emotional relief of the release of the final 20 living hostages and the repatriation of the 28 bodies is a massive boost for national morale and for the families. However, whether it translates into a popular boost for Netanyahu in Tel Aviv (the secular, liberal centre) is highly doubtful.

·       The Public Reckoning: While the return is celebrated, public sentiment largely holds Netanyahu's government responsible for the intelligence failure of October 7th and the two years of ensuing conflict. Furthermore, the public is intensely divided over the high price paid (releasing high-profile security prisoners) and the perception that the ceasefire was forced upon him.

·        Conclusion: Netanyahu will receive credit for the outcome (the return), but the prevailing anger over the process (the war's management and the political price) means that while the deal saved the hostages, it has done little to save his overall popularity or forestall an eventual inquiry into his leadership.

Netanyahu's Coalition and Survival

Netanyahu's government is an extreme coalition of three blocs: Likud, The Hard-Right, and the Ultra-Orthodox (Haredi).

 Mainstream Right Likud (Netanyahu) Personal survival, security, continued power.

Hard-Right Nationalists ;Religious Zionism (Smotrich), Otzma Yehudit (Ben-Gvir) No permanent ceasefire, total destruction of Hamas, no Palestinian state, West Bank annexation/control.

 Ultra-Orthodox | Shas, United Torah Judaism (UTJ) | Maintenance of the blanket military draft exemption for Yeshiva students, generous budgets for religious institutions. |

Intrigue and Cohesion: The latest events intensify the coalition's core tension:

·       Hard-Right Blackmail: Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's threats to quit over the ceasefire are serious. Netanyahu must constantly appease them with aggressive West Bank settlement policy and rhetoric to prevent their departure.

·       The Haredi Anchor: The Ultra-Orthodox bloc is his most reliable anchor. They are primarily focused on the Draft Law issue (which the Supreme Court has mandated a solution for) and budgets. As long as Netanyahu can guarantee them an exemption-preserving law and continued funding, they are unlikely to be the ones to collapse the government over a foreign policy issue like the ceasefire.

 Netanyahu's Strategy to Hold it Together:

·       Delay and Deferral: He will indefinitely defer the "Day After" governance and reconstruction talks, keeping the terms vague to avoid triggering a hard-right walkout.

·       Externalizing the Ceasefire: He will loudly blame the U.S. and "global pressure" for the ceasefire and prisoner release, telling his base that his hands were tied, thereby deflecting responsibility.

·        Domestic Compensation: He will immediately push forward with key Hard-Right and Haredi demands at home—perhaps by advancing controversial elements of the Judicial Reform or pushing a new, evasive Haredi Draft Law—to compensate them for the bitter pill of the ceasefire.

The government is stable only in the sense that its partners fear losing power and budget control in an election more than they hate Netanyahu's foreign policy compromises. He remains the master manipulator of a government that is unified by ideology but fractured by non-negotiable, personal, and religious demands.

Topical Team