The Samia Suluhu Hassan Era: Balancing the Scales of Change and Status Quo

 

                                                   Mama Samia Suluhu Hassan- The President of Tanzania

Samia Suluhu Hassan's journey from a Zanzibari official to the nation's sixth President is a study in political perseverance within the dominant Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party. A native of Zanzibar and a Muslim woman, her political career highlights her ability to navigate complex, male-dominated political terrains.

She rose through the ranks, serving as a Minister in the semi-autonomous government of Zanzibar (2000-2010), then as a Member of Parliament and Minister of State for Union Affairs (2010-2015). Crucially, she was the Vice-Chairperson of the Constituent Assembly tasked with drafting the country's new constitution (2014), gaining first-hand experience in the core constitutional issues. She then served as the Vice President from 2015 until the death of President John Magufuli in March 2021, at which point she constitutionally ascended to the presidency.

As the first female President of Tanzania and the second President from Zanzibar in decades, her position is inherently delicate. She must balance the powerful Unionist wing of the CCM and the Mainland-based political establishment with the need to assert her own authority and legitimacy. Her Zanzibari background gives her a unique perspective on the challenges of the Union, but it also means she has to work harder to prove her command over the mainland deep state.

Upon taking office in 2021, Mama Samia initiated the "Four R" policy: Reconciliation, Reforms, Rebuilding, and Resilience, signalling a clear break from the repressive rule of her predecessor. She lifted the ban on political rallies, which had been outlawed under Magufuli, allowing opposition parties like Chadema to resume public activities. Her initial liberalization efforts were however met with strong resistance from the CCM old guard and hardliners who feared losing the party's historic grip on power. She met with opposition leaders like Tundu Lissu and welcomed exiled figures back to the country.

To survive and consolidate her position against internal rivals, she was reportedly forced to compromise and adopt a tougher stance, proving she could maintain the party's political dominance. The "honeymoon" ended as state security and administrative tools were once again deployed. Opposition leaders, notably Tundu Lissu, have faced arrests (e.g., on treason charges), and the main opposition party, Chadema, has been severely hampered and even disqualified from running in some polls, effectively returning to the repressive tactics of the past.

President Samia faced a formidable challenge from factions within the CCM who were loyal to the late Magufuli's hard-line ideology or who simply resented a Zanzibari woman taking the party's top post. The struggle was clearly demonstrated by resistance from elements within the state apparatus and the CCM machinery that tried to block her succession. She employed a methodical strategy of purges, reassignments, and strategic appointments. She replaced key officials, including the former Chief Secretary and high-ranking security officials, ensuring that loyalty shifted from the "old guard" to her office. By consolidating her control over the security, intelligence, and party structures, she asserted her authority and neutralised potential internal threats.

Post-COVID Economic Policy: She abandoned Magufuli's denialist stance, embraced science, and initiated the country's COVID-19 vaccination drive, restoring trust with global partners. She immediately reversed the denialist COVID-19 policy and embraced Economic Diplomacy. She actively sought to restore relationships with international financial institutions, notably the IMF and the World Bank, securing crucial loans and investment. Her administration has focused on improving the business climate, attracting foreign investment, and expanding infrastructure. This focus has led to a significant economic recovery, with GDP growth projected to be robust. International bodies and investors have applauded her pragmatic approach, which has boosted investor confidence and positioned Tanzania as a reliable partner. President Samia’s greatest success has been in the economic and diplomatic spheres, moving Tanzania away from its isolationist stance.

The demand for a new constitution remains the core political struggle, led by opposition figures like Tundu Lissu (Chadema) and other luminaries. Major aspects of the constitutional review include;

·       Reduction of the President's near-absolute powers, including the authority to appoint and dismiss top officials. She is highly likely to secure her current term due to the weakened opposition. Her future influence will revolve around her control of the CCM succession race, where hardliners and reformers will vie for position, likely making her a powerful kingmaker. |

·       Independent Electoral Commission (IEC): Replacement of the current Presidentially-appointed National Electoral Commission with an independent body.

·       Challenging Election Results: Allowing presidential election results to be challenged in a court of law.

Constitutional Legacy: Whether she launches a genuine constitutional review process will define her legacy. A new constitution would be her most enduring contribution to Tanzania's democratic foundation. Her economic diplomacy has made Tanzania a more influential and respected player in the East African Community (EAC) and African Union. She is viewed regionally as a stabilizing force, but her legacy will ultimately depend on whether she follows through on the promised democratic reforms. |

Tanzania and Kenya, though neighbours, exhibit fundamentally different political dynamics and reform trajectories. Based on the following parameters one can clearly see the difference in Kenya’s and Tanzania’s politics

·       Political Awakening in Tanzania is gradual and Controlled: The CCM's hegemonic status since 1961 ensures that dissent is largely managed and contained. The political system is designed to preserve the status quo. In Kenya the awakening is High-Octane and Cyclical: Political energy is high, often revolving around ethnic divisions, but the robust two-party competition ensures frequent, mass-mobilized political "awakenings." |

·       Poverty and Literacy: Literacy in Tanzania has historically shown higher rates of primary school completion and greater educational equality (a legacy of Julius Nyerere's policies). As far as poverty levels are concerned both nations face high levels of poverty, but poverty reduction rates have fluctuated based on presidential tenure. In Kenya's education system is highly advanced at the tertiary level, fostering a larger, more politically vocal urban middle class. In Kenya high income inequality is a major driver of political discontent, often leading to protests over the cost of living.

·       Youth Influence on Reforms: There is limited Political Space in Tanzania. The youth face significant government clampdowns on political gatherings and digital dissent. Their ability to directly influence reforms is primarily channelled through the fractured opposition. | Kenya’s youth have quite high Political Impact, Kenyan youth (accounting for a large portion of the labour force) are highly active. Their use of social media and ability to stage large-scale protests means they are a critical voting bloc and a powerful check on the government. |

Mama Samia is not only the first Muslim woman to lead Tanzania, but she is also the second president from the Zanzibar Archipelago. She therefore faces a delicate balancing act and a tough duty to manage an unanticipated change. Very few Tanzanians ever imagined that a Muslim woman from Zanzibar would lead the united Tanzania.

The contrasting power arrangements exemplify the country's divided political soul:

·       Zanzibar's GNU: The mandatory Government of National Unity (where the second-place party gets the First Vice Presidency and a cabinet share) is a constitutional mechanism designed to mitigate conflict and ensure political inclusion.

·       Mainland/Union: The system remains strictly winner-takes-all, granting the Union President vast, unchecked power.

This contrast is central to the constitutional debate, as the opposition argues that if mandatory power-sharing can be institutionalized in volatile Zanzibar, similar checks and balances can and should be applied to the Union Government.

The recent political environment has been marked by rising tensions and targeted demonstrations often quickly suppressed following the disqualification and arrest of key opposition figures, such as Tundu Lissu. The "circus" involves the ruling party systematically eliminating meaningful competition through legal and administrative means, resulting in an election that is widely viewed as a coronation rather than a genuine democratic contest. This has resulted to continued Political Apathy, many citizens chose not to vote, convinced their voice doesn't matter, which will lower the election's legitimacy. The current trajectory strengthens the CCM's hegemonic grip, making future democratic reforms harder to achieve without significant international pressure or a renewed, unified domestic movement.

Suppressing political dissent does not eliminate it; it merely pushes it underground. The lack of a legitimate avenue for political change creates the potential for future, more volatile instability. It is therefore upon Mama Suluhu Samia to use her second and last term to embrace the opposition luminaries and engage in a dialogue that will foster a peaceful and productive future for the country. She will have to sacrifice some opinions of the CCM party echelons, and choose the country over selfish narrow interests of the party stalwarts.

Topical Team