The Spectacle of Succession: Stalin's Shadow on Post-Raila Kenya

  

The death of a political titan creates a vacuum, but history warns us it is rarely a space filled by the most deserving or the ideologically pure. It is often seized by the most cunning, the most strategically placed. As Kenya reels from the demise of Raila Amollo Odinga, a chillingly familiar script is unfolding, a contemporary echo of the brutal power struggle that followed the death of Vladimir Lenin in 1924.

                                                   President Ruto pays his last respect to the Late Raila Amollo Odinga

This is not just a comparison; it is a warning. The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM),Raila's political vehicle is the modern-day Bolshevik Party, now facing an internal succession crisis where a "gung-ho" pragmatist may yet outmanoeuvre the party's intellectual elite, only this time, the victor may not even be an ODM insider.

The succession crisis in the nascent Soviet Union saw the brilliant, highly-acclaimed Leon Trotsky war hero, founder of the Red Army, and Lenin’s recognized ideological heir pitted against the seemingly drab, administrative functionary, Josef Stalin.

How did Stalin, the 'grey blur,' triumph over the intellectual giant?

·       The General Secretary's Hidden Hand: Stalin, as the General Secretary of the Communist Party, held the most powerful, yet least glamorous, position. This gave him absolute control over appointments from regional party bosses to delegates to the Party Congresses. By stacking the bureaucracy with his loyalists, Stalin ensured that when the votes came to be cast, the delegates backed him, not the esteemed Trotsky. The intellectual argument was irrelevant; the political machinery was firmly in Stalin’s hands.

·       The Power of Proximity: Lenin, near the end of his life, had grave reservations about Stalin, even calling for his removal in his "Testament." Yet, as Lenin was incapacitated, Stalin ensured his own proximity to the ailing leader, controlling access and information, while Trotsky, often aloof and ill, was marginalized.

·       The Fatal Funeral Faux Pas: The defining, and most spiteful, manoeuvre was over Lenin's burial. Stalin famously telegraphed Trotsky, who was recuperating, giving him the wrong date for the funeral. By missing the sombre event, Trotsky appeared indifferent, even disrespectful, to the fallen leader, allowing Stalin to perform as the chief mourner and the legitimate, emotional heir to Lenin's mantle. This public spectacle cemented Stalin's narrative as the true keeper of the flame.

Trotsky, with his intellectual arrogance and calls for a "permanent revolt," was perceived as too powerful and aloof by the party rank-and-file the very junior members who owed their positions to the shrewd, back-room manipulator, Stalin. Intellect was outfoxed by organizational control.

Fast-forward to Kenya's post-Raila era. The script mirrors the past with chilling precision, only the 'Stalin' figure is external: President William Ruto.

Raila Odinga’s final political act was a rapprochement with President Ruto. This put the incumbent President at a vantage position of emotional inheritance over Raila’s vast, dedicated constituency, which largely overlaps with the ODM's base.

·       The Chief Mourner: President Ruto's meticulously narrated account of Raila's final days, the State House visits, the private jet to India was not a coincidence. It was a calculated performance of profound care for the departed 'general.' Like Stalin at Lenin's funeral, Ruto seized the spotlight to frame himself as the one who truly honoured their fallen hero. He is positioning himself as the respectful custodian of Raila's final legacy, appealing directly to the heart of the ODM base.

·       The Politburo's Compromise: The ODM's Politburo is seemingly at the beck and call of the President. The old guard, the ideologues and radical stalwarts like James Aggrey Orengo and the eloquent Edwin Sifuna, find themselves in a precarious position. The party structure, and key appointments, have always been under Raila's singular command, meaning the junior cadres may now pivot to the new centre of power that is willing to dispense favours and state resources.

·       The House of Cards: The postponement of the 20-year ODM celebration for Raila to seek "accommodation" was a final, tragic sign of an organization whose future was tethered to a single man’s political fortunes. Now, without its anchor, the party faces a succession that will be a house of cards, vulnerable to internal schisms and external manipulation.

I fear for the academic ideologues the brilliant minds who rely on argument and constitutional purity. Just as Trotsky’s intellectual prowess was useless against Stalin’s organizational grip, their idealism risks being outfoxed by Ruto’s political dribbling and the allure of State power for the now-leaderless ODM elite.

The question isn’t who is the most qualified to lead ODM, but who will control the party structures and, crucially, who will the new power centre (President Ruto) recognize as the legitimate, cooperative heir to Raila's political capital. The contest will be decided not in ideological debates, but in the cold, transactional calculus of political survival. The spectacle of succession has begun, and the ghost of Josef Stalin is now haunting Kenyan politics.

Ndungata